By Adil Zareef
“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma!” — Winston Churchill

PAKISTAN in this age and time clearly fits this description. The US prediction that the next 9/11 would come from Fata is no less ominous — Pakhtunkhwa certainly is in the eye of the storm.

Only last week, the Pak-India Forum for Peace and Democracy meeting scheduled in Peshawar for May 24-26 was postponed for ‘security reasons’. It had last met in Peshawar in November 1998 in an altogether different world. There was music and classical dancing by the Sheema Kermani troupe as well as panel discussions on diverse issues between the two rival neighbours. Our world seemed to be inching towards normality.

Most ordinary folks ask the question: from where have the Sufi Mohammads, Nek Mohammads, Baitullah Mehsuds, Fazlullahs, Mangal Baghs, Namdaars and their ilk suddenly appeared and fortified their positions, taking the public hostage and challenging the state? Why do these things not happen in Punjab where they have Raiwind, Mansoora and the renowned ‘bazaar’ alongside the famous Badshahi mosque? How do the profound and the profane coexist as their economies thrive? And here in our land known for centuries for its peaceful civilisations and syncretism of cultures there has suddenly emerged the most violent interpretation of religion threatening to take the country into the dark ages.

As Swat’s tenuous peace holds after a controversial agreement with the militants, cynics have termed it a total capitulation of the traditionally secular ANP and PPP to the Wahabi-sponsored movement supported by state intelligence agencies. The argument goes like this.

The caretaker government led by former Chief Minister Shams ul Mulk had already prepared the blueprint of this deal with the establishment’s man, Maulana Sufi Mohammad, who instigated the insurgency against the state for imposition of the Islamic system in 1994, and later on led thousands of gullible Pakhtuns to their deaths in Afghanistan in the wake of 9/11. He was not the only one who was indemnified for his crimes. Mullah Fazlullah, another shadowy character, who sprang into prominence last year after taking the entire Swat district hostage, also got official reprieve for his gross violations of human rights despite the fact that he had inflicted heavy losses on the provincial economy and infrastructure. In fact, both men have been rewarded with this peace agreement.

According to one Swati academic, “The liberal intelligentsia is pitched against the Taliban backed by the agencies to enforce Wahabi Sharia in the entire Malakand division. As a result there is a stifling silence and suffocating fear. In fact, Sufi Mohammad never signed the peace agreement but many others did on his behalf as Mullah Fazlullah was on a special umrah visit to Saudi Arabia. Armed vigilantes are defying the ban on weapons display and still targeting their opponents.”

According to another source, the government made commitments to the militants some of which have not been made public. As a result, the militants have started roaming around freely and are doing what they had done previously. Very few residents in Kabal, Kanju, Matta and Mingora are convinced that militants would abide by the guarantees given in clauses 3-16 of the agreement.

Talking to the people of Swat, I found that they resent the fact that a few unrepresentative hardcore militants should decide their future. They feel that by acquiescing to the demand for complete Sharia, the provincial government may further erode the credibility of the already vulnerable state institutions. No relief has been provided to the victims of the upheaval. To fill in the vacuum left by the destruction of institutions, a multi-pronged approach with a comprehensive participatory development plan and transparent governance is immediately needed. Both peace and development are essential components of this deal, which are not yet in sight.

Closer to Peshawar, in the Khyber Agency, Mangal Bagh representing the Lashkar-i- Islam is consolidating his position after eliminating all opposition. The recent gunning down of several followers of MNA Noor ul Haq Qadri’s relatively peaceful Qadriya silsila is equally disturbing with hardcore Taliban backers and notorious drug barons of the region having openly sided with the menacing Mangal Bagh brigade. The political authorities always look the other way.

When the killers of Qadri’s men were nabbed by the authorities, they were immediately freed within hours through ‘high level’ contacts. People living in the area also say that whenever a new killing spree takes place, the security personnel conveniently disappear from the scene. A representative of the Shia Toori tribe in Parachinar also reported the political authorities’ pressure to give safe passage to the Taliban into Afghanistan after the peace deal was struck in Fata.

Banned FM radios go on and off sermonising to the people on their dress code, religious rituals etc. The presence of over 200 brand new vehicles is tolerated by the political authorities and no action is taken against them. The Lashkar-i-Islam has virtually taken over Bara tehsil and the public is subjected to heavy fines for missing a prayer. Even old men are ducked in water for not following one Islamic code or another. In fact, people live under the shadow of intimidation.

For this reason, the ANP-PPP’s role has come in for a lot of flak from opponents for making a deal with hardcore Islamists. But Dr Minhaj ul Hasan who heads the history department at the Peshawar University has another view. He finds this approach to be in line with ‘atamam-i-hujat’, which, according to the Quran, is the last step to avoid a full-scale catastrophe which is the alternative to this peace agreement. “If peace fails this time we are in for big trouble,” he remarked.

Dr Fazl ur Rahim, who accompanied Dr Minhaj to Kabul to participate in the Bacha Khan peace conference, agreed, saying, “What we gathered from Nato officials there is worrying. If Pakistan does not get the Taliban to put their act together it may not be just pre-emptive missiles from across the border that we will get but the total obliteration of Fata and perhaps more!” he said.

A parody of Sufi poet Rehman Baba’s famous lines is making waves these days, “Da sabab da jahilanoTalibano – kor au gor au Pekhawar dree wana yo di!” (On account of the illiterate Taliban – our homes and graves and Peshawar have all become synonymous!)

Dawn

THE purists may scoff but the public is delighted and, like it or not, it’s the majority vote that counts. Indeed there is an element of elitism in the barbs directed against the Indian Premier League. Some of the concerns voiced are right on the money, pun intended, but the ebbing flood of criticism also appears to be coming from a position of unwarranted superiority. It is time the naysayers emerged from the ether and saw the real world at ground level. Twenty20 contests are a thrill a minute, usually take place after the day’s work is done and are over in less than four hours. That’s why they are an instant hit with a public that craves spectacle more than stratagem, for whatever reason. And how many decades ago was it that cricket was not commercialised? It’s just a matter of degree, though the IPL does represent a quantum leap in that direction.

Even though all Pakistani players save Sohail Tanvir, and to a lesser extent Kamran Akmal, proved to be dismal flops these past few weeks, that did not diminish public interest here in the IPL. True, their presence in the team probably explained why many in Pakistan were rooting for the Rajasthan Royals, who deservedly clinched the championship on Sunday. But as a former Pakistan captain pointed out, there was no sign of viewer fatigue throughout the tournament, lengthy as it was. The IPL also saw cricketers from across the globe playing together as a unit, and this is a significant development. Even if there is no racism in cricket — though some of the evidence suggests otherwise — the IPL experience could help make the players more culturally attuned and avoid misunderstandings arising out of ‘difference’. Besides the stars who raked in the big bucks, the young and largely unknown Indian cricketers who featured in the IPL will derive great benefit from the tournament. They have rubbed shoulders with the greatest in the game and experienced pressure-cooker situations that domestic cricket can never provide. Yes, there is a downside. Too much Twenty20 could lead to players abandoning country in favour of the IPL and spin-off leagues, and increase the risk of burnout and injury. The one-day game could suffer, though it is unlikely that Test cricket will lose its core following. And yes, the ‘auctioning’ of players is in poor taste and needs a rethink. A balance that benefits the game and its fans has to be found.
Dawn

Ibrat
THE Karachi Stock Exchange witnessed the benchmark KSE-100 index once more losing more than 500 points on Thursday when rumours about President Musharraf’s resignation were at their peak. The country remained in the grip of rumours until … the president himself contradicted them. The plunging of stocks … was due to political uncertainty.

Under the previous regime, the stock exchange had witnessed an artificial crash when some circles earned millions of rupees. Why was no protest staged against Shaukat Aziz? There are many dimensions of the recent stock market crisis. These factors include the worldwide slump in the stock markets, a decrease in remittances by overseas Pakistanis, the illegal business of money changers and weaking of the dollar.

If all these are seen in the context of the current political situation one can easily understand why the stock market plunged. — (May 30)

Bringing LGs under provinces

Khabroon

THE constitutional package is ready to be presented before the National Assembly….The law minister, Farooq Naek, has said that the local government system would be handed over to the provinces and this would also be made part of the constitutional package.

Along with the two major parties, the ANP is also in power. These parties have to work for the prosperity of the country and fulfil the promises made…during the poll campaign.

[F]ollowing the formation of an elected government in Sindh, the government initiated action against some district nazims which led to some political conflicts. The government should be careful while taking such an action. Bringing the local government system under provincial authority would be a positive step as the provinces would be in a better position to monitor their performance and service delivery to the masses…. — (June 1)

Selected and translated by Sohail Sangi

Dawn

What a shameful last three days we’ve had. The media fabricated the story of Musharraf’s departure in a plane to ‘a neighboring country.’ The sad thing is that the rest of the good media is going to suffer when our politicians lead us to the next military takeover. Friends of Pakistan used to wonder why we’re so suicidal. Now they wonder why we’ve also reduced ourselves to a joke. This is the truth: Nawaz Sharif and the Musharraf-hating gang are getting desperate. Chances of taking revenge from Musharraf by using the hapless ex-CJ have all but receded. Zardari has cleverly got them mired in a 62-point bill that could take months if not years to materialize. Now they’re trying to play with the military. They tried once and got burned. Now they are trying again. This time there will be no U.S. president or Saudi crown prince to the rescue. My advice: Stop playing with fire.
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—One could concoct a tale out of anything. Here’s one.

By HUMAYUN GAUHAR
Monday, 2 June 2008.
WWW.AHMEDQURAISHI.COM

The president explained to me the other day the sort of generator or UPS I should put in my house. How could a president know such things? Conclusion: He must be thinking of moving to his private home soon and is therefore studying alternative electric supply options. Scoop!

What a shameful last three days we’ve had. Our friends were wondering why we’re so suicidal. Now they wonder why we’ve also reduced ourselves to a joke. A daily comic that passes for a newspaper and the comic TV channel associated with it deliberately started the rumor last Thursday that President Musharraf would be leaving in hours.

It ran a ticker in its UK broadcast that the president was under “protective custody” when he was actually hosting a dinner at which the army chief was also present.

The next day, ‘The Comic’ ran three more ’scoops’. One: A former army chief said on a private TV channel that Musharraf “had decided to step down.” How does he know? Does he have revelations?

Two: To create the impression that Senate Chairman Mohammedmian Soomro was required in Pakistan to become acting president, ‘The Comic’ asserted with the confidence that only a con artist can muster, that he “has been asked to return home, cutting short his visit. Mian Soomro [sic] is on his way to Islamabad.”

Soomro was in Germany and went to London the next morning instead for four days, which puts paid to that lie. Three: The usual ubiquitous “highly placed sources” (good cover when concocting a story) also told ‘The Comic’ that, “a wide-bodied Airbus A-310 plane had arrived here at Chaklala base. It will take special passengers to a close neighboring country. Packing at an important house in Rawalpindi is in full swing as the modalities have also been finalized for the exit of the significant family.” (Note the wooliness).

If you go to Islamabad Airport or Chaklala Airbase (same thing) you will see many private aircraft parked there. Wonder which “significant families” they are here to take away?

Some of our media have become unique. Times were when they used to exaggerate and embroider. Now they invent – totally. When a news channel phoned to interview me, I said, “You people are incredible. First you invent news and then you hold discussions programs on it. This is a unique new way of news programming. You should get a Press Award for Innovative Journalism.”

The rest of the media, which are very good, are going to suffer because of the few when our politicians inevitably land us back in the Combined Military Hospital.

The new doctors could be surgeons who might just switch the lights off. Our scoop: “Highly placed sources have told us that ‘Comic TV’ owes over Rs 1.5 billion to the government in unpaid taxes.” If true, it explains a lot. Do they also want a deal? Why not? If Zardari can have one and Sharif can have two, why not ‘Comic TV’?

Was it they who put the video of the dancing-taxing chairman on You Tube? ‘Comic TV’ certainly broadcast it. Good pressure tactics, what? Forgive them their taxes, I say, and see how they turn over.

What’s really going on is that Nawaz Sharif and the Musharraf-hating gang is getting desperate. Chances of taking revenge from Musharraf by using the hapless sacked chief justice as a weapon have all but receded. Zardari has cleverly got them mired in a 62-point draft constitutional amendment bill that could take months if not years to come out of committee.

June 7, the budget (which inevitably will be unpopular), and June 10, the day of the ‘Long March’ (Mao wept) of the so-called Lawyers Movement that Sharif has hijacked are looming.

If there is a right royal beat up on June 10, the last tenuous thread that holds the Zardari-Sharif coalition together will decompose and it will become untenable for Sharif to remain on the treasury benches. If a new PPP-PML-MQM coalition emerges, it will suit America, the president and the establishment perfectly. They will see to it that it lasts five years. Five days is a very long time in Pakistani politics. Five years? Anything could happen.

Revenge and the sacked CJ will become history. In their desperation these desperados are trying to force the president’s exit before June 10, so it doesn’t come to break up with Zardari. They are playing with fire and could again end up burning themselves and the country they are ostensibly ’struggling’ for.

Consider Thursday’s tales of ‘The Comic’. “Kiyani Looks Musharraf in the Eye,” said the headline. Was the cartoon reporter of ‘The Comic’ there? (He really is a cartoon: you only have to see him to believe me).

According to ‘The Comic’, Army Chief General Kiyani had a meeting with Musharraf that “continued till after midnight lasting more than three-and-a-half hours” at Army House. Army House? Did Musharraf go to visit Kiyani or are they referring to the President’s Lodge? It’s unlikely that the president went to meet the chief. He often meets people until late at night, nothing new or unusual.

“Sources said that the President’s official spokesman denied this impression…”

Incredible! Why would his spokesman talk indirectly through “sources” when his function is to talk directly to the media?

“Brigadier Fahim Rao has taken over command of the Triple-One Brigade in place of the president’s loyal commander Brigadier Aasim Bajwa.”

Asim is considered to be loyal because he was on Musharraf’s staff. But so was Fahim. It was known for months that Asim was due to go to the National Defense University. The change took place in the normal course. An officer has to command, do a course and a staff job before he becomes eligible for promotion. If Asim hadn’t gone to the NDU it would have affected his career. In bandying about their names the Musharraf haters are ruining the careers of two young, professional officers. In any case, if Asim is loyal to Musharraf, Kiyani should be even more loyal, having risen to the top under him.

As to the commando unit guarding Musharraf, it was simply replaced by another commando unit when its tour of duty was up. What’s the difference?

Nawaz Sharif never understood the limits of power. He overreaches when he should under-reach and under-reaches when he should reach beyond. Don’t imagine that he is trying to extend his reach beyond his grasp to get to the stars.

Even before Thursday, ‘The Comic’ had it that America has asked Zardari to shed Musharraf. Is this convoluted way they best they could find? Then why did Bush telephone Musharraf Friday to reaffirm his support? Then, Musharraf is considering replacing Kiyani with his “cousin” Lieutenant General Nadeem Taj, obviously to create a misunderstanding between the president and the army chief.

Next the Sharif’s Javed Hashmi (the guy who wrote that fake letter on GHQ letterhead) changed track, from “conspiracies being hatched in the Presidency” to “conspiracies being hatched in Army House”, knowing full well that there is a brand new Army House in which General Kiyani lives and the 75-year old bungalow that used to be Army House off and on is now called President’s Lodge and the president will soon shift to the President’s House in Islamabad once it has been upgraded from YMCA Hostel to habitable. Would Kiyani give up the new purpose-built Army House for that decrepit old bungalow? Bhutto and Junejo lived in the old Army House as prime ministers where many a conspiracy was hatched, like the arrest of an army and an air force chief. Why was it not called Army House then? Even a fool can see that this is a dangerous ploy to drive a wedge between the president and the army too. This lot never learns. They fooled around with the army once and got away with it. They tried again and got burned. Now they are trying again. This time there will be no U.S. president or Saudi crown prince to the rescue.

They insist that Musharraf is not the legal president. One asks: what is the legality of those who have been convicted twice over, have run to foreign governments to broker deals, get presidential pardons and take them into comfortable exile, come back after doing more deals also brokered by foreign governments, and got off Scott free under the guise of ‘reconciliation’?

When a shark uses the morality argument in a sea of amorality, it sinks. If Musharraf must exit on this argument, so too must these pathetic pardoned dealers. We can then go back to our past in search of our roots to understand our genesis.

Impeachment? Sure, go ahead, it is your constitutional right, if you have the numbers. “We will try Musharraf for sedition.” Be careful boy, it works both ways. It was only the good sense and patriotism of the PIA pilot that saved Sharif from unwittingly committing possible sedition in his hysteria. If he had taken his commercial flight carrying some 280 innocent passengers to India and delivered Pakistan’s army chief into enemy hands as ordered by Karachi’s Air Control Tower, Sharif was done. What would you call pitting the office that symbolizes the continuity of the state against the army chief and the army? Patriotism?

Only God permanent, nothing else. Musharraf will definitely go one day. But this is not it. Mr. Gauhar is a Pakistani commentator. This is an edited version of a longer column that appeared in Lahore’s The Nation newspaper.