Return of the prodigals- Pervez Musharraf’s achievements
Ikram Sehgal
“If one were to single out any one of Pervez Musharraf’s achievements, perhaps the greatest would be the “mission impossible” of uniting, albeit against himself, two hereditary enemies that were politically tearing Pakistan apart, the PPP and the PML (N). The considered view of all and sundry is that the Coalition love-fest will not survive his departure, its continuity depending upon Musharraf staying as their bogey in the Army House-turned-Presidency…..”
If one were to single out any one of Pervez Musharraf’s achievements, perhaps the greatest would be the “mission impossible” of uniting, albeit against himself, two hereditary enemies that were politically tearing Pakistan apart, the PPP and the PML (N). The considered view of all and sundry is that the Coalition love-fest will not survive his departure, its continuity depending upon Musharraf staying as their bogey in the Army House-turned-Presidency. The US$64,000 question is, if he manages to hang in there, will he survive them? Ironically, Pakistan’s best hope in successfully coping with imminent challenges rests in friend and foe acting not only as check and balance but pulling together. Will Prime Minister Gilani’s rhetoric in launching his 100-day action plan match the will to take and implement politically unpalatable decisions? Or is “go Musharraf go” a priority to everything else, notwithstanding impending miseries and privations for the masses?
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Quarterly Report debunks the sleight-of-hand “feel good” environment created by the Shaukat Aziz economic team. Key economic targets are now adrift, in fairness some of it is attributable to worsening world economics. Despite an outstanding effort by the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) to fend off recession, the “R” word is looming as a fact of life in a US presidential election year. However, most of our domestic problems stem from atrocious economic neglect and complacency riding the arrogance of success up to the year 2005.
Expected wheat production should be theoretically enough to meet domestic demand. Our problem lies in rampant smuggling to Afghanistan and some parts of Central Asia. Recommending (in a TV discussion) an “Operation Close Door” type action like in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1957, I was set upon for “Stalinist” thinking. Mind–boggling! No country in the world allows smuggling, free market does not mean open borders. East Pakistan was not only the granary for the adjacent districts of West Bengal and Assam in 1957 but also provided almost all the raw jute for Calcutta’s jute mills. The crackdown on hoarders and smugglers made rice available and within reach of the common man, Bangladesh’s jute industry overwhelmed Calcutta after 1957. All exports of wheat and wheat flour must be discontinued, for millions “roti” is already getting out of reach. What good is a free market to the poor and hungry if they are starving? To its credit the government has given anti-smuggling powers for a limited period to the Frontier Corps (FC) and the Rangers, moving quickly to provide a good support price to the farmers. Timely payments must now be ensured.
Pakistan’s present shortfall of about 2,500 MW represents severe dereliction of responsibility in planning. Nothing symbolises Pakistan’s present electricity predicament better than KESC. Having an installed capacity of 1800 MW, the working capacity was 880 MW in March 2008. The KESC imported 760 MW daily on the average, 410 MW from WAPDA and 350 from Independent Power Producers (IPPs), a shortfall of almost 200 MW. While privatisation gave hope, the management put in place by the new owners has been nothing short of disaster. The CEO of the KESC, Lt Gen (retd) Mohammad Amjad, is certainly an honest man; he must recognise his own corporate management limitations. Good intentions are no substitute for competence; moreover, the crooked people Amjad has collected in the KESC management means he is applying the same intellectually dishonest “set a thief to catch a thief” policy he followed in the NAB. Barge-mounted options adopted by the Philippines in a similar situation almost two decades ago must be explored. Food and water shortages will be aggravated in the summer heat because of the lack of electricity, Karachi will be a tinder box.
The PPP’s voting to restore the superior judiciary will mean reneging on the quid pro quo for the NRO that has seen wholesale return of the prodigals. Intriguingly, Rahman Malik’s appointment as advisor to the Ministry of Interior was at the president’s request. The same is the case with another close presidential confidante, Maj Gen (retd) Mahmud Durrani, presently Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, as National Security Advisor. This signals that Pervez Musharraf has no intention of leaving for Turkey, and while no longer the absolute master, he is still very much in the game. Nadim Taj is still in place in the ISI, and one can never under-estimate the ISI’s potential of being a state with a state.
And even though Brig Asim Bajwa has been nominated for the NDC, he still commands III Brigade. Pragmatically, the PML (N) did not boycott the cabinet oath-taking ceremony but made it a “black armband” affair. It is the height of hypocrisy to maintain that you do not recognise the president and then make it a fait accompli by taking solemn oath of ministerial office from him. If the PPP abstains from voting for any resolution meant to restore the judiciary’s status pre-Nov 3, will the PML (N) leave the Coalition, or will they simply wear black armbands? If the superior judiciary is restored, being personally affected by the Nov 3 action the restored judges cannot sit on any Bench hearing affecting Pervez Musharraf. Catch-22 does not really describe this anomaly, it is a Pakistani Catch-22.
When the PML (N)’s Don Saifur Rahman Quixote went off on his wild goose chase, the excesses of the Ehtesab Bureau (succeeded by the NAB) caused a number of PPP elite to take off on self-imposed exile. Some were guilty of corruption but many innocent individuals also went abroad to avoid persecution and humiliation. A virtual who’s who of the NAB’s most wanted list is now back in Pakistan. While no innocent person must be adjudged guilty before he (or she) is so charged in a court of law and convicted on the basis of credible evidence, the public perception to the wholesale appointment of prodigals to public office is far from positive. From the drawing rooms of Karachi to the corridors of Islamabad there is skepticism about the credibility of the governance-to-be. While Asif Ali Zardari needed to reward loyalists, discretion required prudence on who to rehabilitate, and how and when to rehabilitate. Asif Zardari’s moves were flawless till the prime minister announced that the NAB would be disbanded; that is also a major mistake. The NAB was one of Musharraf’s finest initiatives till misused for political purposes. On its own, and despite the awful plea-bargaining concept, the NAB did tremendous work. Headed by a superior court judge instead of a general, NAB-like mechanisms are necessary to combat corruption.
With the appointment of some of the prodigals in governance the PPP has inadvertently given the masses a perception that corruption pays. Since Mian Nawaz Sharif’s partymen remained mostly unscathed by the NAB’s dragnet, he is the major beneficiary and now smells roses. “Mr Clean” will likely sweep national elections if held six months down the road. The prime minister’s media honeymoon period will last less than half the normal 90 days (ending during or soon after mid-May), a number of disparate issues hitting the fan almost simultaneously. Remember there may be no electricity to keep the fan operating.
The acid test for the returning prodigals in governance will be whether they will perform, and whether they will do so for themselves or for the country?
The writer is a defence and political analyst. Email: isehgal@pathfinder9.com
A Tribute to President Musharraf 